The Future of Money podcast recently explored the future of global currencies with a special guest who has elite expertise on the topic – Ebrahim Rahbari. Rahbari is an experienced global macro strategist and economist who has built top-ranked teams globally, including being named #1 North American Currency Strategist in 2022. During his tenure at Citi, he took their FX Strategy team from #7 to #1 for four consecutive years from 2019-2022.
Ebrahim Rahbari Qualifications:
Rahbari brought a wealth of qualifications to the podcast discussion, including formerly serving as Citi’s Chief G10 Currency Strategist, Global Head of FX Analysis, and Head of Global Macroeconomics. He has specialized in cross-asset investment opportunities, G10 FX and rates strategy, central bank monitoring, and economic forecasting. Rahbari also led Citi’s prestigious Macro Forum from 2016-2022 and cross-asset investor roundtables from 2020-2023.
Coined “Grexit” Term: The podcast guest is well-known for coining the term “Grexit” back in 2011 during the European debt crisis. Rahbari has made regular media appearances in outlets like Bloomberg, CNBC, the Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal.
Education Background: Rahbari holds a PhD and Master’s degree in Economics from the prestigious London Business School, as well as an undergraduate degree from Oxford University. He has served as a guest lecturer at London Business School and Columbia University.
Future of Money Podcast
Here is a combined description of the two podcast hosts Ronit Ghose and Gaurav Dhar, with some additional numbers and details, as well as a call for founders to apply to AngelSpark:
The Future of Money podcast is hosted by Ronit Ghose, who leads Citi’s Future of Finance team exploring the future of technology, money, and finance. Ghose’s reports on fintech and web3 are among the most widely read publications, with over 500,000 copies distributed globally by Citi.
He is also the author of the book “Future Money,” examining money’s past, present and future through stories of entrepreneurs and investors across over 20 cities worldwide.
Joining Ghose is co-host Gaurav Dhar, CEO of Marshal – the largest and oldest payment technology provider in the Gulf region serving over 50 clients across 17 countries. Established in 1981, Marshal has revolutionized how the Middle East transacts daily through innovative solutions like smart cards, POS systems, loyalty programs and automated transactions.
As the exclusive regional distributor for Verifone POS terminals, Marshal has integrated cutting-edge hardware and software to offer comprehensive payment packages for diverse industries. Under Dhar’s leadership, the company has led the FinTech transformation with sustainable innovations that promote digital payments, reduce paper usage by 65%, and implement energy-efficient technologies.
In addition to his FinTech leadership roles, Dhar is a founding member of AngelSpark – an investment community that has funded over 75 startups globally with $100K investments plus follow-on capital. AngelSpark is actively seeking exceptional founders to back, so apply for funding at https://angelspark.net/apply-for-funding if you are a founder launching an ambitious new venture.
Future of Money Podcast hosted by Ronit Ghose and Gaurav Dhar: Guest Ebrahim Rahbari on The Dollar, Gold & Bitcoin 🪙
The Dollar’s Dominance
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have sparked a heated debate about the future of money and whether traditional fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar will maintain their dominance. The Future of Money podcast recently explored this topic with special guest Ebrahim Rahbari, the economist who coined the term “Grexit” during the European debt crisis.
Rahbari provided insightful perspective on the strengths and challenges facing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. While the dollar benefits from America’s economic strength and the depth of U.S. financial markets, Rahbari noted its role could diminish as the “center of gravity” in the global economy shifts.
However, he argued there is no credible contender to replace the dollar yet. “You need a very deep and liquid market” to be a global reserve currency, which alternatives like the euro, China’s renminbi, and even cryptocurrencies currently lack.
Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply – Pros and Cons
On Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Rahbari said their fixed money supply is a double-edged sword. A limited supply provides stability as a store of value. But flexible money supplies are important for managing economic cycles through policies like lowering real interest rates to stimulate growth.
Sovereign Debt Levels & the Next Downturn
Rahbari also weighed in on sovereign debt levels, stating debt service costs around 3% of GDP are manageable for the U.S., but levels over 5% become problematic based on historical precedent. He predicted debt concerns will rise when the next economic downturn hits.
Aging Populations & the Longevity Revolution
The podcast additionally examined the economic impacts of aging populations and lower fertility rates in countries like Japan. Rahbari said demographics are very influential but not destiny, as longevity research could dramatically extend lifespans and productivity.
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- What is the future of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency?
The U.S. dollar continues to benefit from America’s economic strength and deep financial markets. However, economist Ebrahim Rahbari notes the dollar’s dominance could diminish as the “center of gravity” shifts in the global economy. While alternatives like the euro, renminbi, and cryptocurrencies lack the required deep and liquid markets to replace the dollar currently.
- What are the pros and cons of Bitcoin’s fixed money supply?
A key pro of Bitcoin’s fixed money supply is that it provides stability as a store of value. However, a con is that flexible money supplies are important for managing economic cycles through policies like lowering real interest rates to stimulate growth during downturns, according to Rahbari.
- At what level do sovereign debt service costs become problematic?
According to Ebrahim Rahbari, sovereign debt service costs around 3% of GDP are manageable, but levels over 5% of GDP become problematic based on historical precedent for most countries. He predicts debt concerns will intensify when the next economic recession hits.
- How do aging populations impact economic growth and inflation?
Aging populations with lower fertility rates, like in Japan, can depress economic growth and productivity. However, Rahbari says demographics are influential but not destiny, as longevity research could dramatically extend lifespans and maintain productivity. Aging societies also tend to prefer lower inflation to preserve wealth.
- What resources cover regional financial perspectives?
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April 12, 2024
